Regional topics

Carbon emissions - Long (and expensive) way to net zero

In this report, we focus on the EU system, known as the EU ETS (EU Emissions Trading System), which is the largest global system in terms of market value, accounting for approximately 87% of all traded carbon allowances in 2023. While Climate ETFs are already at 550 USDbn (30% of ESG ETFs), the current market value of carbon ETFs is around 1 USDbn (given the recent drop in carbon permits prices).


Sectoral analyses

Cable production industry: Cashing in on connectivity – cable producers plug into solid sales growth and sound profitability

This report takes a deep dive into the regional cable industry. Our peer group can be broadly divided into two segments: automotive players and general-purpose cable producers which serve a multitude of industries like construction, energy distribution, etc.). In any case, both subgroups managed to retain steadfast sales growth (beating input cost inflation) and defend solid profitability.


Sectoral analyses

Banking industry - 2023 profitability rise unlikely to repeat soon

Industry-wise, European bank stocks were amongst the best performers since end-2022. This is not surprising since, in 2023, large cap banks in Europe delivered the highest net interest margins (median of 1.9%) in at least 20 years, the highest returns on equity (median of 14%) since 2007 and the highest dividend payout ratios (median of 45%) since 2018.


Macro outlook

Adria Region Macro Quarterly 2Q 2024 - Solid growth rates labour dependant

In general, the Adria region countries showed resilience during current global recessionary wave. Even though the external demand posed an impediment to more vivid growth, firm domestic factors have predominated and kept the region on the growth path. Aside from solid domestic demand, investments are contributing positively due to solid infrastructure projects within the region and growth in building construction activity.


Sectoral analyses

Coffee industry: Challenges persist, but the worst is behind

The objective of this report is to analyze the coffee industry through the lens of coffee processors. The report will examine the historical financial performance of significant regional players in coffee processing. It will offer insights for raw coffee prices


Regional topics

Special commodity report - Will sweetness turn to bitterness?

The prices of most commodities have returned to 2019/2020 period levels, but certain commodities are experiencing significant price hikes. The primary factor behind this growth are adverse weather conditions (in important regions for production) and different diseases. Since the start of 2019, the prices of cocoa, orange juice, sugar and coffee have risen by 140% on average. The orange juice stands out, which price surged by 200% followed by cocoa at 160%, which price particularly accelerated in 2024.


Regional topics

Labour market - Productivity struggling to converge to EU

In 2023, gross wages continued to grow, supported by high (albeit declining) inflation rates and a lack of labour. The growth rate in both the Adria region and the CEE4 in nominal terms was over 13.5% on average. Except for Czechia and Slovenia, gross wage growth recorded double-digit numbers. In real terms, the situation is better for the Adria region, where the average real wage growth was 4.8% yoy, suggesting better purchasing power, while that was not the case for CEE4 (-0.6% yoy).


Sectoral analyses

Electrical appliances industry: Reheating yesterday’s lukewarm margins and leftover sales growth

This report hones in on the regional Electrical appliance industry. We look at how different target markets, business models and products ultimately define intra-regional differences in financial performance. We evaluate the financial strengths and weaknesses of the largest regional players and offer our outlook regarding the industry at large.


Regional topics

Animal feed industry: Feedstock value potential – defending sales growth and milking modest margins

This report aims to provide a deeper insight of the animal feed industry in Adria region. In addition to microeconomic aspects and analysis of performance of companies within the industry, the report encompasses macroeconomic aspects, due to profound influence that economic fluctuations have on the industry.


Regional topics

Foreign trade & industrial production - Are you ready for another supply chain headache?

Industrial production in the Adria region stagnated (on average) in 2023, with Serbia on the higher end (+2.3% yoy) and Slovenia on the lower (-5.3% yoy). In this report we aim to gauge the main driver behind its dynamic, and potential going forward.


Regional topics

Retail trade - Real wage growth rebound – a push for retail trade

The real retail trade landscape in the Adria region in 2023 presented a mixed picture. Serbia and Slovenia recorded a decline, North Macedonia recorded stagnation, Croatia saw solid growth and in Bosnia and Herzegovina retail trade experienced expansion. Real wage growth is expected to play a significant role in driving retail trade, but the crucial question lies in the extent of its impact. Notably, consumers are becoming more optimistic, particularly concerning major purchases, which encompass the consumer discretionary segment of retail.


Sectoral analyses

Home improvement industry - Profit followed by higher handmade activities

Overall strong macroeconomic environment in the previous years has contributed to the increasing consumption in the segment of items related to home improvement, surprisingly, even faster than at the EU level. Spending on home improvement or do-it-yourself (DIY) items was sparked during and after the COVID-19 lockdown and the emergence of working-from-home practice as people spent more time inhouse.